I can use my own story as an example from the ground up, something I reasoned about not too long ago with my first piano teacher, who maintained and still maintains today that I was a child prodigy.
I began playing the piano at the age of 9 (also a bit late); at 13 or 14, I performed Liszt's second Hungarian Rhapsody at a recital; at 16, in my first concert in a real theater, I played an entirely Chopin repertoire: mazurkas, waltzes, and the fourth Ballade, and I also had other important repertoire under my hands such as Chopin's Berceuse, some Nocturnes, etc., and I must say that I never killed myself studying; except for the music history exams, eighth and tenth year, which I had to take in 6 months since from the following year conservatories would no longer accept private students.
If I sincerely have doubts about the "child prodigy" story because I do not believe I was a child prodigy—since although facilitated in technique I played those pieces with the immaturity typical of a child—I must, however, acknowledge that I always had technical and anatomical advantages enormously superior to many other pianists who had already been playing for a long time before me: very fast and very large hands combined with my ambidexterity, which allowed me to play with almost the same ease with my left hand what I did with my right. To draw a parallel, there are many "right-handed" graduates who struggle even simply to bring an Alberti bass up to speed with their left hand. This serves to demonstrate that genetics alone also plays a fundamental role.
I believe that beyond these technical facilitations, the "serious pianist" emerges from a myriad of factors that must somehow combine... Genetics, mindset, sense of sacrifice, talent, social experiences, family economic situation, etc.
I also include the economic situation because playing the piano at a certain level is something for the "well-to-do," especially if you do not attend a conservatory and are forced to study as a private student. To play the piano, first of all, you need a piano; private lessons cost a fortune, and when one thinks that once the diploma is obtained the spending is finished, that is exactly the moment when one spends the most on masterclasses and advanced courses.
Families who do not live an affluent existence prefer to invest the few pennies they have in their child into university to give them a more marketable education rather than having them play an instrument which, given the current situation especially here in Italy, will be difficult to provide them with a livelihood.
Social experiences, because the age at which one begins to play an instrument is a particularly difficult age. It happens precisely during the moments of growth when passing from the social state of child to adolescent, when one begins to think about relationships with the opposite sex, going out with friends. All this can be a distraction, and it is therefore important that the child/young person feels responsible and makes choices that perhaps require more maturity than their age.
At this point, Talent comes in... If you start to develop interests in other activities, it means you will dedicate less time to the instrument. Someone with talent, if well-guided, learns in just a few hours what others learn in days or months. This will trigger the wrath of many people, but it is the truth; deal with it. The proof is that there are people who spend entire years reading a Beethoven sonata and others (the talented ones) who master it in a few days.
Sense of sacrifice... At certain levels, it is necessary to sacrifice oneself for study. While other kids can go out and have fun after finishing their school homework, those studying an instrument must sacrifice leisure time to dedicate themselves to the instrument. When there is dedication and love for the instrument, this does not weigh so much, but it is always time spent being engaged with something arduous instead of resting and unplugging.
Mindset, because you cannot play with negativity and problems. The mind must be free and must apply itself solely to study; only in this way will the results be evident. Playing when you are thinking about the girlfriend who left you or an argument with a friend is wasted time. You might as well close the piano and go for a walk to clear your head. In this case, one needs the intelligence to know how to channel those feelings into study.
I would also include consistency, and this is not something everyone can afford. In my case, to be consistent with my studies, I have been forced to sleep 5/6 hours a night for 3 years now (I am one of those...
(if they don't sleep 8 hours straight, they feel unwell all day long). For those who work, it is not easy to be consistent in studying the instrument, so I would also add luck. Those who are lucky enough to have jobs that leave a lot of free time can certainly be more consistent.
As you can see, the Pianist with a capital P, not the strummer, is the one who, being endowed, sacrifices himself and studies by taking time away from rest. I sincerely do not believe that one can become serious pianists if even one of these conditions is missing at the base, talent included then.
It's a bit like mathematics; there are those who understand it and those who don't. I have friends to whom I could teach mathematics for years, they are not genetically predisposed to this subject and would never manage to even reach the study of a function. Each of us has characteristics that make us better than others in a particular context, and to reach a high level, it necessarily requires the combination of many characteristics, some of which do not depend on us but on external factors.